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2021 Summer Heatwaves: Difference between revisions
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→June Heat Dome in Portland (OERS 2021-1650)
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[[File:Heatwave.png|alt=June heatwave dates and temperatures.|center|''June heatwave dates and temperatures.''|frame]]Emergency managers in the region mobilized for heatwave preparations only three days before June 25. Since more preparation lead time can improve response capacity, it is worth noting factors that possibly contributed to curtailed lead time in June: | [[File:Heatwave.png|alt=June heatwave dates and temperatures.|center|''June heatwave dates and temperatures.''|frame]]Emergency managers in the region mobilized for heatwave preparations only three days before June 25. Since more preparation lead time can improve response capacity, it is worth noting factors that possibly contributed to curtailed lead time in June: | ||
* '''Regional response inexperience with temperature extremes at this level.''' For example, at the time, PBEM did not have Operational Guidelines in place for an event like the June heat dome.[[File:HeatHistory.jpg|alt=Timeline/history of temperatures in Portland 1938-2021|thumb|''Daily maximum temperatures in Portland, 1938 - 2021. The three isolated points above the fray represent June 26 - 28, 2021. Click to enlarge.''<ref>Data: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration via Oregon Live; Graphic by Cedric Scherer.</ref>| | * '''Regional response inexperience with temperature extremes at this level.''' For example, at the time, PBEM did not have Operational Guidelines in place for an event like the June heat dome.[[File:HeatHistory.jpg|alt=Timeline/history of temperatures in Portland 1938-2021|thumb|''Daily maximum temperatures in Portland, 1938 - 2021. The three isolated points above the fray represent June 26 - 28, 2021. Click to enlarge.''<ref>Data: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration via Oregon Live; Graphic by Cedric Scherer.</ref>|600x600px]] | ||
* '''Conservative weather forecasts leading up to the heat event.''' A June 21 NWS weather briefing indicated a high confidence forecast of temperatures above 90° starting June 25 with a 50% chance of temperatures hitting 100° that weekend. Concerning, but not highly alarming. Email traffic at PBEM confirms professionals in the region took the prospective heat seriously and worked to plan for it; but until June 22, some doubts remained Portland would reach temperatures over 100° that weekend. Solid indications from NWS that temperatures would exceed 100° on Sunday and Monday in addition to Friday and Saturday do not appear in email traffic until the morning of June 23. Even on the days that followed, the forecasted hottest day and temperatures changed. | * '''Conservative weather forecasts leading up to the heat event.''' A June 21 NWS weather briefing indicated a high confidence forecast of temperatures above 90° starting June 25 with a 50% chance of temperatures hitting 100° that weekend. Concerning, but not highly alarming. Email traffic at PBEM confirms professionals in the region took the prospective heat seriously and worked to plan for it; but until June 22, some doubts remained Portland would reach temperatures over 100° that weekend. Solid indications from NWS that temperatures would exceed 100° on Sunday and Monday in addition to Friday and Saturday do not appear in email traffic until the morning of June 23. Even on the days that followed, the forecasted hottest day and temperatures changed. | ||
* '''A community safety net already stretched and frayed by COVID-19.''' The pandemic has led to increased social isolation (a factor in heat illness deaths) and houselessness. | * '''A community safety net already stretched and frayed by COVID-19.''' The pandemic has led to increased social isolation (a factor in heat illness deaths) and houselessness. | ||