File:2017.01.XX.Role of Grocercies.pdf

Catastrophic events involving dense urban areas—especially densities exceeding 3,000 people per square mile over a wide area—involve complex collections of sociotechnical systems, including demand and supply networks. Any extreme, extended, and wide-area disruption of key supply chains poses an acute threat to dense populations. In effect, supply chain disruption can determine whether an event is “catastrophic” or not. Where supply chains persist, catastrophic consequence is unlikely. Where supply chains experience sustained failure, catastrophe is difficult to avoid.